By Matt Szabo

The religious right's admission that its proposals to ban same-sex marriage are struggling to gather enough signatures is a sign that the era of hate-based politics in California is coming to an end.

Until recently it was a forgone conclusion that the religious right would qualify the anti-marriage amendments for the June 2006 ballot.ÊGays and gay allies have been gearing up for the expected showdown by raising money and hiring an experienced campaign team to oppose the measures. But there's one big glitch: California voters are not signing the anti-marriage petitions.

The Oakland Tribune reported recently that there's "no chance" of qualifying the same-sex marriage ban for the June 2006 ballot, and "November might be out of reach as well." Campaign for Children and Families president and anti-gay crusader Randy Thomasson admitted that his fund-raising is nowhere near the $1 million he needs to gather the more than 600,000 valid registered-voter signatures required.

And it gets even better.

Backers of a competing marriage ban are blaming their floundering signature-gathering efforts on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's special election, telling the Oakland Tribune that it "diverted the effort of many volunteers ... so we're playing catch-up."

I don't buy that excuse. The special election -- via Proposition 73, the measure to require parental notification for minors' abortions -- only aided the efforts to gather signatures for the anti-marriage amendments. The religious right's political machine doubled its efforts by circulating the marriage ban petitions while conducting get-out-the-vote activities for Proposition 73.

And even then, with the ready-made pro-life support and millions of dollars flowing into a special election, these guys are still struggling to qualify their hateful measures.

This is good news, but it's way too early to declare victory. If an election were held today, the majority of California voters could very well approve a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. But due to a voter pool constantly evolving in our favor, support for such action weakens every single day.

In the most recent Public Policy Institute of California survey, California voters were split -- 46 percent to 46 percent -- on whether gays should be allowed to marry. That's a dramatic progression from the mood of voters in 2000, which opposed same-sex marriage 57 to 38 percent.

And according to the Field Poll's most recent analysis, there is a nearly perfect inverse relationship between a voter's age and support for same-sex marriage, with a majority of all voters under age 40 in favor of marriage equality. So every single day, California loses voters opposed to same-sex marriage (they die) and gains voters who support it (they register).

The right is on the wrong side of history. Before long, the "will of the people" will grant full marriage equality to California's gays and lesbians.

And with the governor, the first lady, and most of our elected leaders on our side, that day will be sooner rather than later.

Matt Szabo, former communications director for L.A. mayoral candidate Bob Hertzberg, blogs at mattszabo.com.