by Karen Ocamb

On May 14, the day the state Senate passed a bill declaring May 22 as Harvey Milk Day in California, LGBT activists working to achieve equality—the cause most closely associated with the martyred gay San Francisco Supervisor’s legacy—seemed otherwise engaged, jockeying to determine leadership of the post-Prop. 8 LGBT movement.

The venomous blame-game for failure to defeat Prop. 8 first blasted African Americans, then Mormons, then contributors to Yes on 8 and then the executive committee of the No on Prop 8 campaign. But after numerous town hall meetings and sheer exhaustion with—if not forgiveness for—the most visible campaign leaders, most grassroots, organizational and check-book activists seemed prepared to move on to the next big discussion: what to do on the day the California Supreme Court issued its ruling on the validity of Prop. 8 and whether to mount another initiative campaign in 2010 or wait until 2012.

(The court could rule any Monday or Thursday until June 3. See DayofDecision.org for reaction events planned. Additionally, there is a “Meet in the Middle” event planned in Fresno, Calif., for the Saturday following the ruling. See meetinthemiddle4equality.com for more information.)

Everyone seemed settled into a waiting period until Sunday, May 3, in Oakland. It started out as another successful Camp Courage event, the grassroots training “boot camp” modeled after the Obama campaign trainings, co-founded by longtime activists Torie Osborn, Lisa Powell and Mike Bonin and sponsored by the online progressive organizing hub, the Courage Campaign. As Osborn was wrapping up her inspirational closing remarks, she went off-script and announced that the community should go to the ballot in 2010.

Osborn told Frontiers in L.A. that she woke up at 4:30 the morning of her speech with the refrain, “If not now, when?” reverberating in her thoughts.

“From my vantage point at Camp Courage, I’ve been feeling, seeing, hearing what was happening, and I trust my own radar after 40 years,” Osborn said. Considering that a “majority-minority” city such as Oakland voted overwhelmingly to defeat Prop. 8, “I said to myself, ‘This is ridiculous. We can so do this [in 2010] if we unleash the power of the grassroots and we have a kick-ass professional campaign.”

Her announcement, however, kicked up a firestorm of public and private protest from leaders upset that Osborn broke an agreed upon silence to not announce any decision about going back to the ballot until after the court ruled.

“We have been challenging the court system for almost five years,” longtime activist and marriage plaintiff Robin Tyler told Frontiers. “But Torie and [Courage Campaign founder] Rick Jacobs—neither of whom did anything to stop the passage of Prop. 8—are rushing to the front of the line to declare that we should go back to the ballot in 2010, while the rest of us who have been fighting this battle continuously stuck to the agreement we all had about not going against our side’s legal argument that civil rights should not be put up to a vote. We all agreed not to announce anything prior to the California Supreme Court handing down its decision.”

Asked why she didn’t wait until after the court’s ruling, Osborn said, “That is so not why people are holding back. People are holding back because there’s no polling data and because it would make sense to wait until the Supreme Court rules to kind of move out your next—[Pauses]. They’ve done the polling data to roughly time with the day of decision. The truth is I don’t run an organization. I don’t have a platform under me. I’m kind of a movement trainer or teacher. I feel like it is my moral obligation is to speak the truth as I see it. And what I saw was—and the way that I framed it was—it is clear to me that we will win if we choose to go [back to the ballot] in 2010. Let’s just say the Supreme Court does the wrong thing. If the polling data says, ‘Stop Everything! You can’t win!’ I will reverse my position in a hot minute. But I’m not going to say that because things have changed so radically ... It’s like an unstoppable wave. We’re in a different era. People are waking up.”

Osborn also noted that the head of the ongoing Obama organization in California, which is “chomping at the bit to help,” told her, “In your political calculus, don’t forget 2012 is re-election time. You want the Obama troops, [so] you guys need to go in 2010.” So, Osborn said, “There many, many reasons that converge on 2010.”

As Frontiers goes to press, a coalition of organizations is preparing to release the results of a statewide poll to gauge whether there has been sufficient change in voters’ attitudes towards marriage equality since the November election to win a repeal of Prop. 8 on the 2010 ballot. LGBT leaders across the political spectrum are waiting for an in-depth analysis to determine their next course.

“I will participate in an affirmative same-sex marriage ballot initiative when we see credible and independent data that we can win with 60 percent or more of the voters in California, and I believe we have [the] right coalition and campaign leadership in place,” philanthropist David Bohnett, who contributed more than $2 million to the campaign for marriage equality, told Frontiers. “Time is on our side, and the numbers are continuing to swing our way. Short of winning with 60 percent or more of the vote, we will be subject to another initiative to overturn marriage equality and our resources are better deployed elsewhere.”

“The one thing worse than losing once would be losing twice,” a prominent gay fundraiser told Frontiers. “We should be incredibly strategic as to the timing of another ballot measure. I believe that if polling does not show that we will prevail in 2010, there will be a major, high-profile effort encouraging donors (major and grassroots) to not support a 2010 effort.”

Though gay labor organizer Cleve Jones, among others, believes that a 2010 ballot initiative can be won through a concerted effort such as the LGBT community exhibited 30 years ago with the defeat of the anti-gay Briggs Initiative, others feel money will be needed for a range of political needs, from hiring campaign staff to figuring out the best language for a successful ballot initiative.

One initiative, submitted by Chaz Lowe of Yes! On Equality, is already before the state attorney general awaiting a title and summary. But while some grassroots activists believe the initiative is sufficient, other legal leaders say more is required.

“It may be quite sensible to defuse preemptively the fears about elementary school teaching and anti-gay churches’ religious freedom that we saw whipped-up last year by the Prop. 8 campaign,” Jenny Pizer, director of Lambda Legal’s National Marriage Project, told Frontiers. “Ballot language should be crafted carefully, though, to avoid inadvertently handing legal arguments to those who want to use religion as an excuse for discriminating against LGBT people in employment and other commercial settings. Religious freedom rightly allows churches to refuse religious services like marriage to gay couples, but does not allow religiously affiliated hospitals to refuse medical services to gay patients. We won that principle in the California Supreme Court, and it mustn’t be undermined needlessly.”

But underneath the high-minded discussions is a churning of such raw distrust and discontent, one wonders if a mediator might not be needed to mend fences in what one leader calls “this race for premature ejaculation.”

In her Oakland speech, Osborn reprised the criticism of the No on Prop 8 campaign leaders that many thought had been vented at the Equality Summit and other town halls. The people “at the table” running the new campaign, Osborn told Frontiers, “will be people from traditional LGBT organizations, plus the new coalition that has been sparked by the Courage Campaign,” among other groups. “I think it will be a different group than four white gay executive directors who had no business choosing anybody to run a political campaign” which she called “political malfeasance ... I’m not saying [Equality California Marriage Project Director] Marc Solomon won’t be at the table. I’m just saying it’s not going to be the know-nothings who make the decision again.”

Robin McGehee, organizer of “Meet in the Middle,” whom Osborn calls “a true blue new leader, the future of our movement,” is an outspoken critic of Equality California and exemplifies the unresolved rage. “The people in control are in control because they want to silence the internal opposition instead of talking about strength and weaknesses and working together,” she told Frontiers during Equality Network’s “Teach In” on May 9, noting that she and the other post-Prop. 8 grassroots activists have a “Harvey Milk mentality” based on the film Milk. “This will not be over until the organizational culture changes at EQCA. I only see that happening if [Executive Director] Geoff Kors is no longer involved with EQCA,” she wrote in a subsequent e-mail.

Kors noted that he has not publicly trashed another activist and instead continues EQCA’s mission, pushing the Harvey Milk Day bill, for example. Additionally, EQCA announced its latest effort—the 100-day Win Marriage Back: Make it Real! campaign—will be launched May 11.

“We have one goal and that’s equality and acceptance for our community, and we’re going to do that work regardless of when the community wants to go back to the ballot. And we’re hopeful we don’t have to because we believe the Supreme Court’s going to be striking Prop. 8,” Kors told reporters on a conference call. The campaign includes a significant statewide media ad buy for two TV commercials featuring same-sex couples and their children.

“Win Marriage Back is not talk. It’s action about making the lives of same-sex couples, their family members and friends real to all Californians,” said Solomon, who assumed the position vacated by Seth Kilbourn, who ran EQCA’s “Let California Ring” and “Decline to Sing” efforts. Additionally, Solomon is reaching out to moderate and conservative Republicans.

Kate Kendell, executive director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights and a No on Prop 8 leader, notes that the LGBT community will face a battle regardless of how the court rules. “In the midst of an environment so fraught with future-altering questions and strategy decisions, there are bound to be heated conversations and disagreements,” Kendell said. “However, we have more leaders and organizations and activists engaged in this future than ever before and with very few exceptions, we all are really committed to go beyond ego, beyond institutions, winning full justice and equality for LGBT people in California.”

“It gets us nowhere to allow us to be divided or distracted by fighting each other. If we can’t embody love, fairness, equality and justice in the way that we treat each other, then how do we expect to be able to mount and win an authentic ‘yes’ campaign for love, fairness, equality and justice in the broader community?” said Molly McKay of Marriage Equality USA. “This next campaign can’t just publicize created talking points about what we ‘stand for.’ We must create a campaign that actually embodies and is a manifestation of the inclusion, justice, fairness, love and equality that we seek from the world. The campaign and how it is run will act as a mirror for what we will get back from the voters.”